According to the latest semiconductor report released by Lu Xingzhi, Chief Semiconductor Analyst of Barclays Securities Asia Pacific, it is estimated that the revenue of wafer foundry, packaging and testing, and substrate groups will grow by 5-9% this year. Driven by the new product cycle, it is expected that MediaTek (2454), Morningstar (3697), New World (2455), Wenmao (3105), and Nandian (8046) will have a revenue growth rate of 12-19% this year. At the same time, it is estimated that the scale of global wafer foundry cost expenditures this year will remain at the same level as last year, at $18.4 billion.

As semiconductor giants have all announced their revenue performance for last year, Lu Xingzhi pointed out that companies such as United Microelectronics Corporation (2303), World Advanced Technology (5347), and Morningstar all performed better than market expectations in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that their stock prices are expected to strengthen before the profit performance is announced, while TSMC (2330), Sun Yat sen (2311), Siliconware (2325), and MediaTek's fourth quarter revenue performance is in line with expectations. On the other hand, substrate manufacturers Jingshuo (3189) and Southern Power have been impacted by the lower than expected performance in the fourth quarter of last year, and there will be adjustment pressure on their stock prices in the short term. It is recommended that investors avoid substrate groups in the near future.

In its latest report, Lu Xingzhi estimates that the revenue of wafer foundry, packaging and testing, and substrate groups will grow by 5-9% this year. From the first quarter outlook, it is estimated that substrate factories will experience a 10-12% quarterly decrease in revenue, and the packaging and testing group's revenue in the first quarter is expected to decline by 8-12%. TSMC and UMC's revenue in the first quarter may decrease by 4-6%. At the same time, it is estimated that the IC design group's revenue in the first quarter will be at the level of a 1-5% quarterly decrease. Lu Xingzhi believes that the demand for PC and LCD related ICs in the first quarter is strong, while the demand for communication and consumer ICs is relatively weak.